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The National Association of Home Builders estimated that remodeling spending growth averaged 0.0% across states in the second quarter of 2026. Spending fell in 26 states and rose in 24, while only North Carolina and Illinois among the 10 largest remodeling markets recorded growth, according to the report.
Remodeling spending was flat on average across U.S. states in the second quarter of 2026, even as the broader housing market slowed, according to the National Association of Home Builders’ State Projections of Remodeling. The estimates show declines in 26 states and increases in 24 states, indicating a near-even split rather than broad-based growth.
The report puts the average state growth rate at 0.0% for the quarter. It does not mean spending was unchanged in every state: results varied, with more states reporting declines than gains. Among the 10 states with the largest remodeling market shares, only North Carolina and Illinois recorded growth, NAHB chief economist Robert Dietz said.
The State Projections of Remodeling provides quarterly estimates of spending and market share by state. NAHB says its proprietary statistical model combines national quarterly home-improvement spending data with multiple state-level indicators and the association’s annual state remodeling forecast. The figures are model estimates, not a direct census of every remodeling project.
NAHB remodelers chairman Elliott Pike attributed flat spending to rising construction costs and weak consumer sentiment, which he said are weighing on projects. The source report does not provide dollar totals, state-by-state growth rates, or a separate national spending-growth figure; the 0.0% figure is described as the average growth rate across states.
A Split Market for Remodelers
The results point to a uneven market for contractors and suppliers: the overall state average was flat, but individual states moved in different directions. For businesses planning staffing, inventory and project pipelines, the figures caution against treating national conditions as a reliable guide to every local market. The report identifies North Carolina and Illinois as the only growth states among the 10 largest markets, but does not quantify the size of their increases.
For homeowners, the report offers a snapshot of industry conditions, not a forecast for an individual project’s price or availability. NAHB says construction costs and consumer sentiment are restraining spending. At the same time, the association sees longer-term supports, including homeowners’ equity and demand for modifications that help people remain in their homes as they age.
The sector’s scale adds to the relevance of the trend. NAHB reports that remodeling represented 128,000 firms at the start of 2025, compared with 69,000 in 2000. Those counts show the number of firms at the stated points in time; they do not, by themselves, establish how much employment or spending changed.
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How NAHB Tracks Remodeling
The State Projections of Remodeling, or SPR, is a quarterly state-by-state analysis of remodeling spending, market share and changes in spending. NAHB’s model uses national home-improvement spending data alongside state indicators and the association’s annual forecast to produce its estimates. The method means the published results depend on a statistical model rather than a complete count of projects.
NAHB said the flat second-quarter results were consistent with its forecast for remodeling spending in 2026. Separately, the association’s Remodeling Market Index, a measure of remodeler confidence, had remained above 60 for the previous year, according to the report. That confidence measure is distinct from the SPR’s spending estimates: steady confidence does not mean spending rose in the quarter.
The report frames a contrast between near-term constraints and longer-term demand. Pike cited costs and consumer sentiment as pressures on current projects, while pointing to an aging housing stock, the mortgage-rate lock-in effect, home-equity gains and aging-in-place needs as potential supports for future activity. These are NAHB’s stated factors and outlook, not a guarantee of future growth.
Limits of the State Estimates
The report does not specify the dollar amount of remodeling spending in Q2, the percentage change in each state, or the precise size of the increases in North Carolina and Illinois. It also does not provide a direct national total in the supplied material. The 0.0% average should be read as the reported average across states, not as proof that every state or the national market had no change.
The source describes the SPR as a proprietary model but does not publish the full model inputs, uncertainty ranges or revisions for this quarter. It is also unclear from the report how the housing slowdown affected different project types or how much of the flat result reflects project delays, cancellations, or changes in project size. NAHB’s comments about future growth remain forecasts rather than measured outcomes.
Watch for Later Quarterly Estimates
The next useful indicator will be a subsequent SPR release, which can show whether the balance of state gains and declines changes and whether the reported average moves away from flat. NAHB’s remodeling confidence index may also provide a separate signal of how remodelers view conditions, though confidence and actual spending are not interchangeable measures.
For now, the association’s 2026 forecast remains the frame it cited for the second-quarter result. The supplied report does not give a date for the next release or a revised forecast. Readers and businesses should distinguish future NAHB projections from the current quarter’s model-based estimates as new data become available.
Key Questions
What happened to remodeling spending in Q2 2026?
NAHB’s State Projections of Remodeling reported an average state growth rate of 0.0%. Spending declined in 26 states and increased in 24.
Did remodeling spending fall in every state?
No. The estimates showed declines in 26 states and increases in 24. The overall average does not describe every state’s result.
Which large remodeling markets recorded growth?
Among the 10 states with the largest market shares, NAHB chief economist Robert Dietz said only North Carolina and Illinois recorded growth. The report supplied here does not state the size of those gains.
Why does NAHB say spending remained flat?
Remodelers chairman Elliott Pike cited rising construction costs and weak consumer sentiment as pressures on projects. NAHB also pointed to longer-term factors it expects to support demand, including home-equity gains and aging-in-place needs.
Is the 0.0% figure a direct national spending total?
No. The report describes it as the average growth rate across states. The SPR uses a proprietary statistical model, and the supplied report does not provide a separate national dollar total or explain the precise calculation behind the state average.
Source: hardwareretailing.com
