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HIRI’s Sept. 29-30, 2026, Home Improvement Insights Summit in Minneapolis focused on economic conditions, customer behavior, research, project spending and sales channels. Speakers discussed AI use in renovation and contractor confidence, while HIRI’s forecast projected 2.5% growth in the home improvement products market in current dollars for 2026, but a 1.5% decline after inflation.
The Home Improvement Research Institute’s 2026 Home Improvement Insights Summit brought home improvement industry leaders to Minneapolis on Sept. 29-30 to examine economic pressures, customer decision-making and artificial intelligence’s role in renovation. HIRI’s latest forecast, presented at the event, projects the products market will grow 2.5% in current dollars in 2026, while shrinking 1.5% after inflation—a contrast that underscores the difference between nominal sales growth and consumers’ purchasing power.
The summit organized its sessions around five themes: macroeconomics, the customer journey, data and market research, project spending, and sales channels. Speakers included representatives from the National Association of Home Builders, OpenBrand, S&P Global, The Farnsworth Group and Houzz. The program covered conditions affecting homebuyers and homebuilders, contractor business expectations, and how homeowners research renovation projects.
Danushka Nanayakkara-Skillington, the NAHB’s assistant vice president for forecasting and analysis, discussed inflation and other economic factors affecting homebuilding and homebuying. She noted that the median age of a first-time homebuyer is now 40, compared with 29 in 1981. HIRI’s Dave King joined OpenBrand chief economist Ralph McLaughlin and S&P Global director Michael Zdinak for a discussion of how affordability, mortgage rates and income affect buyers.
Grant Farnsworth, president of The Farnsworth Group, presented findings from the HIRI and Farnsworth Group Q2 2026 Quarterly Contractor Business Sentiment Tracker and the Farnsworth Contractor Index for Q3. The index put contractors’ confidence in getting business over the next six months at 8.2 out of 10. Houzz senior vice president of marketing Liza Hausman presented research indicating that 22% of homeowners use AI for renovation, and that households using AI account for 25% of renovation dollars, according to the summit recap published by Hardware Retailing.
Growth Looks Different After Inflation
The forecast presents a mixed picture for manufacturers and other businesses serving home improvement customers. HIRI projected 2.5% market growth in current dollars for 2026, but a 1.5% contraction after inflation. The figures describe different ways of measuring the market: nominal growth does not necessarily mean the volume of products consumers can afford or purchase is rising.
That distinction matters for decisions about inventory, pricing and investment, although the summit recap does not detail how individual businesses should respond. King’s message to manufacturers was to reduce uncertainty for customers in the coming quarter. In a market where affordability and economic conditions affect purchase decisions, clarity about products and choices may influence whether customers proceed with projects.
The AI findings also offer an early signal for businesses tracking how renovation research is changing. The reported figures show AI use among a portion of homeowners and renovation spending; they do not establish that AI caused projects to happen or increased spending. They do, however, make customer research and recommendations a relevant subject for retailers and manufacturers.
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The Summit’s Five Market Themes
HIRI’s event brought together industry participants for two days of discussion about market data and customer behavior, rather than announcing a new policy or product. The sessions linked economic conditions with questions about how consumers choose projects, where they seek advice and which sales channels serve them.
The economic discussion included a long-term change in first-time homebuyer age: the median reported at the summit was 40 in 2026, up from 29 in 1981. The recap does not provide a methodology or additional detail for that comparison. Speakers also addressed affordability, mortgage rates and income as factors shaping buyers’ circumstances.
For 2027, HIRI president Dave King pointed to the organization’s Q3 2026 Size of the Home Improvement Products Market Report and Forecast and called for industry growth. The summit also featured Kevin O’Connor, host of This Old House, discussing how the brand seeks to remain relevant. According to the recap, he described trust as depending on educating customers first, being accurate and avoiding a transactional approach.
““Take uncertainty out of the customer’s decision in the coming quarter.””
— Dave King, HIRI
home improvement project planning software
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Limits of the Summit Findings
The published recap does not provide the full methodology behind the AI-use figures, contractor confidence index or market forecast. It is therefore unclear from this material how survey respondents were selected, how the measures were calculated or how the findings compare with earlier periods. The figures should be read as reported summit findings, not as a complete account of all homeowners or contractors.
The forecast is also a projection, not a final measurement of 2026 market performance. The recap does not specify which economic assumptions underpin the forecast or how the market may develop after 2026. It also does not establish that AI use caused the renovation spending associated with households using AI.
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Forecasts Point Toward 2027
HIRI’s Q3 2026 market report and forecast sets out the organization’s outlook for the home improvement products market, including its 2026 estimate and expectations heading into 2027. Businesses will be able to compare that projection with later market data as it becomes available. King’s stated near-term recommendation was for manufacturers to make customer decisions less uncertain in the coming quarter.
The summit recap does not announce a follow-up event or give dates for additional research releases. Further detail on the forecast, survey methods and AI findings would help readers judge how broadly the results apply and how the market is changing.
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Key Questions
What was the HIRI 2026 Summit about?
The Sept. 29-30 event in Minneapolis examined macroeconomics, customer journeys, market research, project spending and sales channels in the home improvement industry.
What did HIRI forecast for the 2026 market?
HIRI’s forecast projected that the home improvement products market would grow 2.5% in current dollars in 2026, but shrink 1.5% after inflation.
How many homeowners use AI for renovation, according to the summit?
Houzz research presented by Liza Hausman indicated that 22% of homeowners use AI for renovation. The recap also said households using AI account for 25% of renovation dollars, but it does not establish that AI use caused that spending.
What did contractors report about their business outlook?
The Farnsworth Contractor Index for Q3 2026 put contractor confidence in getting business over the next six months at 8.2 out of 10, according to the summit recap.
What remains uncertain about the findings?
The recap does not include full survey methods, forecast assumptions or detailed comparisons with prior periods. HIRI’s market figures are projections for 2026, not a final account of the year’s results.
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