The climate crisis is coming for your groceries

A new joint report by the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO) and the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) confirms that rising global temperatures are increasingly damaging crops and livestock, threatening future food security. The report highlights how extreme heat waves, driven by climate change, are already disrupting agriculture in countries like Brazil, India, and the US, with impacts expected to intensify.

The 94-page report merges weather and agricultural data to document how prolonged and intense heat waves are reducing yields of key commodities such as soy, corn, wheat, and coffee. Brazil, a major global exporter, has experienced significant crop losses due to record-breaking temperatures, including a heat index of 144.1°F in Rio de Janeiro last year. Similarly, India saw a 9-34% decrease in wheat yields in over a third of its states following a severe heat wave in 2022.

Beyond crop impacts, livestock health and productivity are affected; in Brazil, pigs suffered heat stress for nearly a year, and dairy animals in India produced less milk. The report also cites incidents like algae blooms killing farmed salmon in Chile and forest fires exacerbated by heat in North America. The authors warn that under high-emissions scenarios, many regions could face over 250 days annually of dangerously hot weather, making outdoor work impossible and threatening food production.

Why It Matters

This report underscores the growing threat of climate change to global food security, emphasizing that extreme heat is already disrupting supply chains and agricultural productivity. As food shortages and price volatility increase, vulnerable populations could face heightened hunger and economic instability. The findings reinforce the urgency of reducing greenhouse gas emissions and adopting adaptive strategies in agriculture to mitigate future risks.

Background

Climate change has been linked to increasing frequency and intensity of heat waves globally. Previous studies have documented crop failures and livestock losses during recent extreme events, but this report consolidates data across multiple regions to illustrate a pattern of growing vulnerability. It builds on earlier assessments by the IPCC and other agencies that warn of worsening impacts if emissions are not curbed.

Brazil’s agriculture has been notably affected by heat and flooding, with yields of soy and coffee declining sharply since 2022. Similar impacts have been observed in North America, Asia, and Africa, where rising temperatures threaten staple crops and farming livelihoods. The report also highlights the occupational risks faced by farmworkers exposed to dangerous heat levels.

“We’re not moving at a speed that is good enough, and we have a residual risk that is increasing.”

— Martial Bernoux, FAO senior natural resources officer

“Heat is estimated to kill almost half a million people a year. That’s about 30 times more than tropical cyclones. And it’s driven by human-induced climate change.”

— UN Secretary-General António Guterres

“The diagnosis in this report is sharper than anything we’ve had before, but the prescriptions are lagging behind.”

— Naia Ormaza Zulueta, researcher at UBC

What Remains Unclear

It remains unclear how quickly and effectively global and regional policies will implement necessary adaptation measures. The precise economic and social impacts of ongoing crop and livestock losses are still being assessed, and future climate scenarios introduce variability in projected heat extremes and their effects.

What’s Next

Next steps include increasing investment in climate-resilient agriculture, expanding early warning systems, and implementing policies to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. Monitoring ongoing impacts and refining adaptation strategies will be critical as new data emerges. The upcoming COP climate negotiations are expected to prioritize food security and resilience measures.

Key Questions

How soon could climate change severely impact grocery supplies?

Impacts are already occurring and are expected to worsen over the next decade if emissions are not curbed. The report warns of increasing disruptions, with some regions facing over 250 days of extreme heat annually by the end of the century.

Which crops are most at risk from rising temperatures?

Crops like wheat, soy, coffee, and rice are particularly vulnerable, with yields declining in heat-stressed conditions. Livestock health and productivity are also at risk, affecting meat and dairy supplies.

What can be done to protect food supplies from climate impacts?

Strategies include developing heat-resistant crop varieties, improving water management, shifting planting schedules, and reducing greenhouse gas emissions to slow climate change. Policy and investment are essential for effective adaptation.